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Tivoli vs Casertana — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Tivoli
Tivoli
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Casertana
Casertana
3/5/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 26Stadio Olindo Galli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tivoli37%
×Draw29%
Casertana34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tivoli
1.11
Casertana
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tivoli
0.88
Casertana
1.41

allows per match

Tivoli
0.71
Casertana
1.35

finishing

Tivoli+0.00on par
Casertana+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli ↓

Casertana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tivoli or draw
66%
Tivoli or Casertana
71%
Draw or Casertana
63%

Winning margin

Tivoli wins by 2+
15%
Casertana wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tivoli 1+ goals
67%
Tivoli 2+ goals
30%
Tivoli 3+ goals
10%
Casertana 1+ goals
65%
Casertana 2+ goals
29%
Casertana 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tivoli (draw refunded)
52%
Casertana (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Casertana away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli attack 0.88 + Casertana defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.11

Casertana attack 1.41 + Tivoli defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tivoli scores more
37%
level
29%
Casertana scores more
34%

Tivoli at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tivoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tivoli vs Casertana

Casertana beat Tivoli 3-2 in Serie D - Girone G on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Olindo Galli in Tivoli.