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Casertana vs Tivoli — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Casertana
Casertana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tivoli
Tivoli
10/29/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 9Stadio Comunale Alberto Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Casertana52%
×Draw23%
Tivoli24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casertana
1.77
Tivoli
1.12

Casertana creates 58% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Casertana
1.94
Tivoli
1.24

allows per match

Casertana
1.00
Tivoli
1.59

finishing

Casertana+0.00on par
Tivoli+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casertana ↓

Tivoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Casertana or draw
76%
Casertana or Tivoli
77%
Draw or Tivoli
48%

Winning margin

Casertana wins by 2+
29%
Tivoli wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Casertana 1+ goals
83%
Casertana 2+ goals
53%
Casertana 3+ goals
26%
Tivoli 1+ goals
67%
Tivoli 2+ goals
31%
Tivoli 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Casertana (draw refunded)
69%
Tivoli (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casertana at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Tivoli away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casertana attack 1.94 + Tivoli defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.77

Tivoli attack 1.24 + Casertana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Casertana scores more
52%
level
23%
Tivoli scores more
24%

Casertana at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Casertana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Casertana vs Tivoli

Casertana and Tivoli drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Alberto Pinto in Caserta.