Tivoli Gardens 3–1 Lime Hall Academy

Tivoli Gardens

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Lime Hall Academy

12/31/2023

Premier League · Round 12Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tivoli Gardens69%

×Draw19%

Lime Hall Academy12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tivoli GardensExpected goals in this matchLime Hall Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

0.74

Tivoli Gardens

2.14

Lime Hall Academy

0.74

Tivoli Gardens creates 189% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 13 away

1.43

creates per match

0.38

1.10

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Tivoli Gardens

1.43

Lime Hall Academy

0.38

allows per match

Tivoli Gardens

1.10

Lime Hall Academy

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par

Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli Gardens ↓

Lime Hall Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tivoli Gardens or draw

88%

Tivoli Gardens or Lime Hall Academy

81%

Draw or Lime Hall Academy

31%

Winning margin

Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+

45%

Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals

88%

Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals

63%

Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals

36%

Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals

52%

Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals

17%

Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)

86%

Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli Gardens at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 99 matches

Lime Hall Academy away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.43 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.14

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.38 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Tivoli Gardens scores more

69%

level

19%

Lime Hall Academy scores more

12%

Tivoli Gardens at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Tivoli Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff