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Lime Hall Academy vs Tivoli Gardens — Premier League 2019

Lime Hall Academy
Lime Hall Academy
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Tivoli Gardens
Tivoli Gardens
3/31/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Drax Hall Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lime Hall Academy22%
×Draw23%
Tivoli Gardens56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lime Hall Academy
1.06
Tivoli Gardens
1.85

Tivoli Gardens creates 75% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 100 away

creates per match

Lime Hall Academy
0.69
Tivoli Gardens
1.24

allows per match

Lime Hall Academy
2.46
Tivoli Gardens
1.44

finishing

Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par
Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lime Hall Academy ↓

Tivoli Gardens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lime Hall Academy or draw
44%
Lime Hall Academy or Tivoli Gardens
77%
Draw or Tivoli Gardens
78%

Winning margin

Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+
8%
Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals
65%
Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals
29%
Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals
9%
Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals
84%
Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals
55%
Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)
28%
Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lime Hall Academy at home — creates 0.69, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Tivoli Gardens away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.69 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.06

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.24 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lime Hall Academy scores more
22%
level
23%
Tivoli Gardens scores more
56%

Tivoli Gardens at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tivoli Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Lime Hall Academy 1–4 Tivoli Gardens

Tivoli Gardens beat Lime Hall Academy 4-1 in Premier League on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Drax Hall Sports Complex in Saint Ann's Bay.