Tivoli Gardens 2–0 Dunbeholden: Result & Stats

Tivoli Gardens

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dunbeholden

1/19/2025

Premier League · Round 18Edward Seaga Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Tivoli Gardens45%

×Draw27%

Dunbeholden29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tivoli GardensExpected goals in this matchDunbeholden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.06

Tivoli Gardens

1.40

Dunbeholden

1.06

Tivoli Gardens creates 32% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 101 away

1.43

creates per match

1.02

1.10

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Tivoli Gardens

1.43

Dunbeholden

1.02

allows per match

Tivoli Gardens

1.10

Dunbeholden

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par

Dunbeholden+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli Gardens ↓

Dunbeholden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tivoli Gardens or draw

71%

Tivoli Gardens or Dunbeholden

73%

Draw or Dunbeholden

55%

Winning margin

Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+

21%

Dunbeholden wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals

75%

Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals

41%

Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals

17%

Dunbeholden 1+ goals

65%

Dunbeholden 2+ goals

29%

Dunbeholden 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)

61%

Dunbeholden (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli Gardens at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 99 matches

Dunbeholden away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.37 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.43 + Dunbeholden defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.40

Dunbeholden attack 1.02 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tivoli Gardens scores more

45%

level

27%

Dunbeholden scores more

29%

Tivoli Gardens at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tivoli Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff