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Dunbeholden vs Tivoli Gardens — Premier League 2019

Dunbeholden
Dunbeholden
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Tivoli Gardens
Tivoli Gardens
3/19/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31Prison Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Dunbeholden41%
×Draw26%
Tivoli Gardens33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunbeholden
1.41
Tivoli Gardens
1.25

Dunbeholden creates 13% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 100 away

creates per match

Dunbeholden
1.38
Tivoli Gardens
1.24

allows per match

Dunbeholden
1.25
Tivoli Gardens
1.44

finishing

Dunbeholden+0.00on par
Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunbeholden ↓

Tivoli Gardens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dunbeholden or draw
67%
Dunbeholden or Tivoli Gardens
74%
Draw or Tivoli Gardens
59%

Winning margin

Dunbeholden wins by 2+
19%
Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dunbeholden 1+ goals
76%
Dunbeholden 2+ goals
41%
Dunbeholden 3+ goals
17%
Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals
71%
Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals
36%
Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dunbeholden (draw refunded)
55%
Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunbeholden at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 93 matches

Tivoli Gardens away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunbeholden attack 1.38 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.24 + Dunbeholden defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dunbeholden scores more
41%
level
26%
Tivoli Gardens scores more
33%

Dunbeholden at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dunbeholden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunbeholden vs Tivoli Gardens

Tivoli Gardens beat Dunbeholden 4-2 in Premier League on March 19, 2025.

The match was played at Prison Oval in Spanish Town.