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Titanes FC vs Marítimo — Copa Venezuela 2024

Titanes FC
Titanes FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Marítimo
Marítimo
6/11/2025Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Round 1 - Group AEstadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Titanes FC35%
×Draw27%
Marítimo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Titanes FC
1.21
Marítimo
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Titanes FC
0.67
Marítimo
2.25

allows per match

Titanes FC
0.33
Marítimo
1.75

finishing

Titanes FC+0.00on par
Marítimo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Titanes FC ↓

Marítimo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Titanes FC or draw
62%
Titanes FC or Marítimo
73%
Draw or Marítimo
65%

Winning margin

Titanes FC wins by 2+
15%
Marítimo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Titanes FC 1+ goals
70%
Titanes FC 2+ goals
34%
Titanes FC 3+ goals
12%
Marítimo 1+ goals
72%
Marítimo 2+ goals
37%
Marítimo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Titanes FC (draw refunded)
47%
Marítimo (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Titanes FC at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Marítimo away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Titanes FC attack 0.67 + Marítimo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Marítimo attack 2.25 + Titanes FC defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Titanes FC scores more
35%
level
27%
Marítimo scores more
38%

Marítimo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Marítimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Venezuela: Titanes FC 1–1 Marítimo

Titanes FC and Marítimo drew 1-1 in Copa Venezuela on June 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto in Guanare.