Marítimo 3–2 Titanes FC: Result & Stats

Marítimo

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Titanes FC

7/2/2025

Copa Venezuela · Round 1 - Group CCancha de Camurí Chico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Marítimo58%

×Draw23%

Titanes FC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarítimoExpected goals in this matchTitanes FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.88

Marítimo

1.75

Titanes FC

0.88

Marítimo creates 99% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

0.75

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Marítimo

1.50

Titanes FC

1.00

allows per match

Marítimo

0.75

Titanes FC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marítimo+0.00on par

Titanes FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marítimo ↓

Titanes FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Marítimo or draw

81%

Marítimo or Titanes FC

77%

Draw or Titanes FC

42%

Winning margin

Marítimo wins by 2+

33%

Titanes FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Marítimo 1+ goals

83%

Marítimo 2+ goals

52%

Marítimo 3+ goals

25%

Titanes FC 1+ goals

59%

Titanes FC 2+ goals

22%

Titanes FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Marítimo (draw refunded)

76%

Titanes FC (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marítimo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Titanes FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marítimo attack 1.50 + Titanes FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Titanes FC attack 1.00 + Marítimo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Marítimo scores more

58%

level

23%

Titanes FC scores more

19%

Marítimo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Marítimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff