Titanes FC 4–0 Llaneros de Guanare: Result & Stats

Titanes FC

FT

4 – 0

Llaneros de Guanare

9/8/2021

Segunda División · Round 11Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Soto Rosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Titanes FC55%

×Draw25%

Llaneros de Guanare21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Titanes FCExpected goals in this matchLlaneros de Guanare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.88

Titanes FC

1.61

Llaneros de Guanare

0.88

Titanes FC creates 83% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 43 away

1.69

creates per match

0.93

0.83

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Titanes FC

1.69

Llaneros de Guanare

0.93

allows per match

Titanes FC

0.83

Llaneros de Guanare

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Titanes FC+0.00on par

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Titanes FC ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Titanes FC or draw

79%

Titanes FC or Llaneros de Guanare

75%

Draw or Llaneros de Guanare

45%

Winning margin

Titanes FC wins by 2+

29%

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Titanes FC 1+ goals

80%

Titanes FC 2+ goals

48%

Titanes FC 3+ goals

22%

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals

59%

Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals

22%

Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Titanes FC (draw refunded)

73%

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Titanes FC at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.83 · 89 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Titanes FC attack 1.69 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.61

Llaneros de Guanare attack 0.93 + Titanes FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Titanes FC scores more

55%

level

25%

Llaneros de Guanare scores more

21%

Titanes FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Titanes FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff