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Llaneros de Guanare vs Titanes FC — Segunda División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
1 – 0
Titanes FC
Titanes FC
7/21/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare37%
×Draw26%
Titanes FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.33
Titanes FC
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 86 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.33
Titanes FC
1.21

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.48
Titanes FC
1.33

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Titanes FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Titanes FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
63%
Llaneros de Guanare or Titanes FC
74%
Draw or Titanes FC
63%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
16%
Titanes FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
74%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
38%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
15%
Titanes FC 1+ goals
74%
Titanes FC 2+ goals
39%
Titanes FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
50%
Titanes FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Titanes FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.33 + Titanes FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Titanes FC attack 1.21 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
37%
level
26%
Titanes FC scores more
37%

Llaneros de Guanare at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llaneros de Guanare vs Titanes FC

Llaneros de Guanare beat Titanes FC 1-0 in Segunda División on July 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto in Guanare.