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Tiszaújváros vs Mátészalka — NB III - Northeast 2019

Tiszaújváros
Tiszaújváros
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mátészalka
Mátészalka
3/9/2025NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 19Sport Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tiszaújváros50%
×Draw23%
Mátészalka27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tiszaújváros
1.77
Mátészalka
1.25

Tiszaújváros creates 42% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tiszaújváros
1.62
Mátészalka
1.00

allows per match

Tiszaújváros
1.49
Mátészalka
1.93

finishing

Tiszaújváros+0.00on par
Mátészalka+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszaújváros ↓

Mátészalka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tiszaújváros or draw
73%
Tiszaújváros or Mátészalka
77%
Draw or Mátészalka
50%

Winning margin

Tiszaújváros wins by 2+
27%
Mátészalka wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tiszaújváros 1+ goals
83%
Tiszaújváros 2+ goals
53%
Tiszaújváros 3+ goals
26%
Mátészalka 1+ goals
71%
Mátészalka 2+ goals
36%
Mátészalka 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tiszaújváros (draw refunded)
65%
Mátészalka (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszaújváros at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

Mátészalka away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszaújváros attack 1.62 + Mátészalka defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

Mátészalka attack 1.00 + Tiszaújváros defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tiszaújváros scores more
50%
level
23%
Mátészalka scores more
27%

Tiszaújváros at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tiszaújváros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Tiszaújváros 1–0 Mátészalka

Tiszaújváros beat Mátészalka 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Sport Park in Tiszaújváros.