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Mátészalka vs Tiszaújváros — NB III - Northeast 2019

Mátészalka
Mátészalka
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tiszaújváros
Tiszaújváros
L. Bodo 81'
D. Nagy 88' (pen)
8/18/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 4Mátészalkai Városi sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mátészalka27%
×Draw25%
Tiszaújváros47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mátészalka
1.10
Tiszaújváros
1.54

Tiszaújváros creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 110 away

creates per match

Mátészalka
0.47
Tiszaújváros
1.48

allows per match

Mátészalka
1.60
Tiszaújváros
1.74

finishing

Mátészalka+0.00on par
Tiszaújváros+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mátészalka ↓

Tiszaújváros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mátészalka or draw
53%
Mátészalka or Tiszaújváros
75%
Draw or Tiszaújváros
73%

Winning margin

Mátészalka wins by 2+
10%
Tiszaújváros wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Mátészalka 1+ goals
67%
Mátészalka 2+ goals
30%
Mátészalka 3+ goals
10%
Tiszaújváros 1+ goals
79%
Tiszaújváros 2+ goals
45%
Tiszaújváros 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mátészalka (draw refunded)
36%
Tiszaújváros (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mátészalka at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Tiszaújváros away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.74 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mátészalka attack 0.47 + Tiszaújváros defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.10

Tiszaújváros attack 1.48 + Mátészalka defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mátészalka scores more
27%
level
25%
Tiszaújváros scores more
47%

Tiszaújváros at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tiszaújváros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

81'
L. Bodo
88'
D. NagyPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mátészalka vs Tiszaújváros

Mátészalka and Tiszaújváros drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on August 18, 2024.

Goals: L. Bodo (81'), D. Nagy (88' pen).

The match was played at Mátészalkai Városi sporttelep in Mátészalka.