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Tiszakecske FC vs Kecskeméti TE II — NB III - Southeast 2023

Tiszakecske FC
Tiszakecske FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
5/25/2025NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 30Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tiszakecske FC64%
×Draw21%
Kecskeméti TE II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tiszakecske FC
1.98
Kecskeméti TE II
0.82

Tiszakecske FC creates 141% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Tiszakecske FC
2.33
Kecskeméti TE II
1.10

allows per match

Tiszakecske FC
0.53
Kecskeméti TE II
1.63

finishing

Tiszakecske FC+0.00on par
Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszakecske FC ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tiszakecske FC or draw
85%
Tiszakecske FC or Kecskeméti TE II
79%
Draw or Kecskeméti TE II
36%

Winning margin

Tiszakecske FC wins by 2+
39%
Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tiszakecske FC 1+ goals
86%
Tiszakecske FC 2+ goals
59%
Tiszakecske FC 3+ goals
31%
Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
56%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
20%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tiszakecske FC (draw refunded)
81%
Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszakecske FC at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszakecske FC attack 2.33 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.98

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.10 + Tiszakecske FC defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Tiszakecske FC scores more
64%
level
21%
Kecskeméti TE II scores more
15%

Tiszakecske FC at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Tiszakecske FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Tiszakecske FC 1–1 Kecskeméti TE II

Tiszakecske FC and Kecskeméti TE II drew 1-1 in NB III - Southeast on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Tiszakécske.