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Kecskeméti TE II vs Tiszakecske FC — NB III - Southeast 2023

Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tiszakecske FC
Tiszakecske FC
11/10/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 15Műkertvárosi Sportcentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kecskeméti TE II28%
×Draw22%
Tiszakecske FC50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kecskeméti TE II
1.35
Tiszakecske FC
1.89

Tiszakecske FC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kecskeméti TE II
1.57
Tiszakecske FC
2.20

allows per match

Kecskeméti TE II
1.57
Tiszakecske FC
1.13

finishing

Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par
Tiszakecske FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kecskeméti TE II ↓

Tiszakecske FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kecskeméti TE II or draw
50%
Kecskeméti TE II or Tiszakecske FC
78%
Draw or Tiszakecske FC
72%

Winning margin

Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
12%
Tiszakecske FC wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
74%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
39%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
15%
Tiszakecske FC 1+ goals
85%
Tiszakecske FC 2+ goals
56%
Tiszakecske FC 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
35%
Tiszakecske FC (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kecskeméti TE II at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Tiszakecske FC away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.57 + Tiszakecske FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tiszakecske FC attack 2.20 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kecskeméti TE II scores more
28%
level
22%
Tiszakecske FC scores more
50%

Tiszakecske FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tiszakecske FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Kecskeméti TE II 1–0 Tiszakecske FC

Kecskeméti TE II beat Tiszakecske FC 1-0 in NB III - Southeast on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Műkertvárosi Sportcentrum in Kecskemét.