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Tiszakecske FC vs Füzesgyarmati — NB III - Northeast 2019

Tiszakecske FC
Tiszakecske FC
FT
3 – 0
Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
8/12/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 3Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tiszakecske FC66%
×Draw19%
Füzesgyarmati14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tiszakecske FC
2.16
Füzesgyarmati
0.89

Tiszakecske FC creates 143% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 67 away

creates per match

Tiszakecske FC
2.68
Füzesgyarmati
1.24

allows per match

Tiszakecske FC
0.53
Füzesgyarmati
1.63

finishing

Tiszakecske FC+0.00on par
Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszakecske FC ↓

Füzesgyarmati →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tiszakecske FC or draw
86%
Tiszakecske FC or Füzesgyarmati
81%
Draw or Füzesgyarmati
34%

Winning margin

Tiszakecske FC wins by 2+
42%
Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tiszakecske FC 1+ goals
88%
Tiszakecske FC 2+ goals
63%
Tiszakecske FC 3+ goals
36%
Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
59%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
22%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tiszakecske FC (draw refunded)
82%
Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszakecske FC at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Füzesgyarmati away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.63 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszakecske FC attack 2.68 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.16

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.24 + Tiszakecske FC defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Tiszakecske FC scores more
66%
level
19%
Füzesgyarmati scores more
14%

Tiszakecske FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Tiszakecske FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Tiszakecske FC 3–0 Füzesgyarmati

Tiszakecske FC beat Füzesgyarmati 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Tiszakécske.