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Füzesgyarmati vs Tiszakecske FC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
FT
1 – 0
Tiszakecske FC
Tiszakecske FC
2/28/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 22Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Füzesgyarmati32%
×Draw24%
Tiszakecske FC44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Füzesgyarmati
1.35
Tiszakecske FC
1.63

Tiszakecske FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 19 away

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.82
Tiszakecske FC
2.26

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.00
Tiszakecske FC
0.89

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par
Tiszakecske FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

Tiszakecske FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw
56%
Füzesgyarmati or Tiszakecske FC
76%
Draw or Tiszakecske FC
68%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
14%
Tiszakecske FC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
74%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
39%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
15%
Tiszakecske FC 1+ goals
80%
Tiszakecske FC 2+ goals
48%
Tiszakecske FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
42%
Tiszakecske FC (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 65 matches

Tiszakecske FC away — creates 2.26, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.82 + Tiszakecske FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tiszakecske FC attack 2.26 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more
32%
level
24%
Tiszakecske FC scores more
44%

Tiszakecske FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tiszakecske FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Füzesgyarmati vs Tiszakecske FC

Füzesgyarmati beat Tiszakecske FC 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Lázár Gyula Sporttelep in Füzesgyarmat.