Tiszakecske FC 3–0 Csep-Gól: Result & Stats

Tiszakecske FC

FT

3 – 0

Csep-Gól

8/18/2024

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 4Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tiszakecske FC70%

×Draw19%

Csep-Gól11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tiszakecske FCExpected goals in this matchCsep-Gól

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.67

Tiszakecske FC

2.10

Csep-Gól

0.67

Tiszakecske FC creates 213% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

2.33

creates per match

0.80

0.53

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Tiszakecske FC

2.33

Csep-Gól

0.80

allows per match

Tiszakecske FC

0.53

Csep-Gól

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tiszakecske FC+0.00on par

Csep-Gól+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszakecske FC ↓

Csep-Gól →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tiszakecske FC or draw

89%

Tiszakecske FC or Csep-Gól

81%

Draw or Csep-Gól

30%

Winning margin

Tiszakecske FC wins by 2+

45%

Csep-Gól wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Tiszakecske FC 1+ goals

88%

Tiszakecske FC 2+ goals

62%

Tiszakecske FC 3+ goals

35%

Csep-Gól 1+ goals

49%

Csep-Gól 2+ goals

15%

Csep-Gól 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Tiszakecske FC (draw refunded)

87%

Csep-Gól (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszakecske FC at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Csep-Gól away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszakecske FC attack 2.33 + Csep-Gól defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.10

Csep-Gól attack 0.80 + Tiszakecske FC defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Tiszakecske FC scores more

70%

level

19%

Csep-Gól scores more

11%

Tiszakecske FC at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Tiszakecske FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff