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Csep-Gól vs Tiszakecske FC — NB III - Southeast 2023

Csep-Gól
Csep-Gól
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tiszakecske FC
Tiszakecske FC
3/9/2025NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 19Béke téri Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Csep-Gól28%
×Draw23%
Tiszakecske FC49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csep-Gól
1.33
Tiszakecske FC
1.83

Tiszakecske FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Csep-Gól
1.53
Tiszakecske FC
2.20

allows per match

Csep-Gól
1.47
Tiszakecske FC
1.13

finishing

Csep-Gól+0.00on par
Tiszakecske FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csep-Gól ↓

Tiszakecske FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Csep-Gól or draw
51%
Csep-Gól or Tiszakecske FC
77%
Draw or Tiszakecske FC
72%

Winning margin

Csep-Gól wins by 2+
12%
Tiszakecske FC wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Csep-Gól 1+ goals
74%
Csep-Gól 2+ goals
38%
Csep-Gól 3+ goals
15%
Tiszakecske FC 1+ goals
84%
Tiszakecske FC 2+ goals
54%
Tiszakecske FC 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Csep-Gól (draw refunded)
36%
Tiszakecske FC (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csep-Gól at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Tiszakecske FC away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csep-Gól attack 1.53 + Tiszakecske FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tiszakecske FC attack 2.20 + Csep-Gól defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Csep-Gól scores more
28%
level
23%
Tiszakecske FC scores more
49%

Tiszakecske FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tiszakecske FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Csep-Gól 0–1 Tiszakecske FC

Tiszakecske FC beat Csep-Gól 1-0 in NB III - Southeast on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Béke téri Stadion in Budapest.