Tiszafuredi VSE 3–1 Sajóbábony Vegyész

Tiszafuredi VSE

FT

3 – 1

Sajóbábony Vegyész

9/27/2020

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 11Lipcsey Elemér Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tiszafuredi VSE68%

×Draw17%

Sajóbábony Vegyész15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tiszafuredi VSEExpected goals in this matchSajóbábony Vegyész

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

1.22

Tiszafuredi VSE

2.70

Sajóbábony Vegyész

1.22

Tiszafuredi VSE creates 121% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 19 away

1.77

creates per match

0.89

1.55

allows per match

3.63

creates per match

Tiszafuredi VSE

1.77

Sajóbábony Vegyész

0.89

allows per match

Tiszafuredi VSE

1.55

Sajóbábony Vegyész

3.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszafuredi VSE ↓

Sajóbábony Vegyész →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Tiszafuredi VSE or draw

85%

Tiszafuredi VSE or Sajóbábony Vegyész

83%

Draw or Sajóbábony Vegyész

32%

Winning margin

Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+

47%

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals

93%

Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals

75%

Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals

50%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals

70%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals

34%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)

82%

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszafuredi VSE at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.55 · 102 matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.77 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.70

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 0.89 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Tiszafuredi VSE scores more

68%

level

17%

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more

15%

Tiszafuredi VSE at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Tiszafuredi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff