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Sajóbábony Vegyész vs Tiszafuredi VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Sajóbábony Vegyész
Sajóbábony Vegyész
FT
1 – 1
Tiszafuredi VSE
Tiszafuredi VSE
4/18/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 30Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész34%
×Draw24%
Tiszafuredi VSE42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.42
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.62

Tiszafuredi VSE creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.21
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.45

allows per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.79
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.64

finishing

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par
Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sajóbábony Vegyész ↓

Tiszafuredi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sajóbábony Vegyész or draw
58%
Sajóbábony Vegyész or Tiszafuredi VSE
76%
Draw or Tiszafuredi VSE
66%

Winning margin

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+
15%
Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals
76%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals
41%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals
17%
Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals
80%
Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals
48%
Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)
44%
Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sajóbábony Vegyész at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Tiszafuredi VSE away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.64 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 1.21 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.45 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more
34%
level
24%
Tiszafuredi VSE scores more
42%

Tiszafuredi VSE at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tiszafuredi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sajóbábony Vegyész vs Tiszafuredi VSE

Sajóbábony Vegyész and Tiszafuredi VSE drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep in Sajóbábonyi.