Tiszafuredi VSE 1–0 Karcag SE: Result & Stats

Tiszafuredi VSE

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Karcag SE

8/18/2024

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 4Lipcsey Elemér Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Tiszafuredi VSE39%

×Draw24%

Karcag SE37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tiszafuredi VSEExpected goals in this matchKarcag SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.48

Tiszafuredi VSE

1.52

Karcag SE

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 49 away

1.77

creates per match

1.41

1.55

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Tiszafuredi VSE

1.77

Karcag SE

1.41

allows per match

Tiszafuredi VSE

1.55

Karcag SE

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par

Karcag SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszafuredi VSE ↓

Karcag SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Tiszafuredi VSE or draw

63%

Tiszafuredi VSE or Karcag SE

76%

Draw or Karcag SE

61%

Winning margin

Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+

19%

Karcag SE wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals

78%

Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals

45%

Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals

20%

Karcag SE 1+ goals

77%

Karcag SE 2+ goals

43%

Karcag SE 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)

51%

Karcag SE (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszafuredi VSE at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.55 · 102 matches

Karcag SE away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.77 + Karcag SE defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

Karcag SE attack 1.41 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tiszafuredi VSE scores more

39%

level

24%

Karcag SE scores more

37%

Tiszafuredi VSE at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tiszafuredi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff