Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Karcag SE vs Tiszafuredi VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Karcag SE
Karcag SE
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tiszafuredi VSE
Tiszafuredi VSE
3/9/2025NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 19Ligeti úti Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Karcag SE50%
×Draw23%
Tiszafuredi VSE27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karcag SE
1.81
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.27

Karcag SE creates 43% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 102 away

creates per match

Karcag SE
1.98
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.45

allows per match

Karcag SE
1.08
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.64

finishing

Karcag SE+0.00on par
Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karcag SE ↓

Tiszafuredi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Karcag SE or draw
73%
Karcag SE or Tiszafuredi VSE
77%
Draw or Tiszafuredi VSE
50%

Winning margin

Karcag SE wins by 2+
28%
Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Karcag SE 1+ goals
84%
Karcag SE 2+ goals
54%
Karcag SE 3+ goals
27%
Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals
72%
Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals
36%
Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Karcag SE (draw refunded)
65%
Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karcag SE at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

Tiszafuredi VSE away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.64 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karcag SE attack 1.98 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.81

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.45 + Karcag SE defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Karcag SE scores more
50%
level
23%
Tiszafuredi VSE scores more
27%

Karcag SE at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Karcag SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Karcag SE 2–1 Tiszafuredi VSE

Karcag SE beat Tiszafuredi VSE 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Ligeti úti Sporttelep in Karcag.