Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tisa Adorjan vs Tekstilac Odžaci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
FT
1 – 3
Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
9/19/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 6Igralište Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tisa Adorjan36%
×Draw23%
Tekstilac Odžaci40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tisa Adorjan
1.57
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 29 away

creates per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.90
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.90

allows per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.43
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.24

finishing

Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par
Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tisa Adorjan ↓

Tekstilac Odžaci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tisa Adorjan or draw
60%
Tisa Adorjan or Tekstilac Odžaci
77%
Draw or Tekstilac Odžaci
64%

Winning margin

Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
18%
Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
79%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
46%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
21%
Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
81%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
50%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
47%
Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tisa Adorjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.43 · 63 matches

Tekstilac Odžaci away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.90 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.57

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 1.90 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tisa Adorjan scores more
36%
level
23%
Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
40%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Tisa Adorjan 1–3 Tekstilac Odžaci

Tekstilac Odžaci beat Tisa Adorjan 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Igralište Tise in Adorjan.