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Tekstilac Odžaci vs Tisa Adorjan — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
FT
1 – 1
Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
4/10/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 21Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tekstilac Odžaci57%
×Draw22%
Tisa Adorjan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Odžaci
2.00
Tisa Adorjan
1.16

Tekstilac Odžaci creates 72% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 64 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
2.37
Tisa Adorjan
1.58

allows per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
0.73
Tisa Adorjan
1.64

finishing

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par
Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Odžaci ↓

Tisa Adorjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tekstilac Odžaci or draw
78%
Tekstilac Odžaci or Tisa Adorjan
78%
Draw or Tisa Adorjan
43%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
34%
Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
86%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
59%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
32%
Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
69%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
32%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
72%
Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Odžaci at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

Tisa Adorjan away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.64 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 2.37 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.00

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.58 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
57%
level
22%
Tisa Adorjan scores more
22%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Tekstilac Odžaci 1–1 Tisa Adorjan

Tekstilac Odžaci and Tisa Adorjan drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar in Odžaci.