Tisa Adorjan 1–4 OFK Vršac: Result & Stats

Tisa Adorjan

FT

1 – 4

OFK Vršac

10/3/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 8Igralište Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tisa Adorjan42%

×Draw23%

OFK Vršac35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tisa AdorjanExpected goals in this matchOFK Vršac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.54

Tisa Adorjan

1.69

OFK Vršac

1.54

Tisa Adorjan creates 10% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 43 away

1.90

creates per match

1.65

1.43

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Tisa Adorjan

1.90

OFK Vršac

1.65

allows per match

Tisa Adorjan

1.43

OFK Vršac

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tisa Adorjan ↓

OFK Vršac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Tisa Adorjan or draw

65%

Tisa Adorjan or OFK Vršac

77%

Draw or OFK Vršac

58%

Winning margin

Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+

21%

OFK Vršac wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals

82%

Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals

50%

Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals

24%

OFK Vršac 1+ goals

79%

OFK Vršac 2+ goals

45%

OFK Vršac 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)

54%

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tisa Adorjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.43 · 63 matches

OFK Vršac away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.47 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.90 + OFK Vršac defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.69

OFK Vršac attack 1.65 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tisa Adorjan scores more

42%

level

23%

OFK Vršac scores more

35%

Tisa Adorjan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tisa Adorjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff