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OFK Vršac vs Tisa Adorjan — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
FT
4 – 3
HT: 4 – 0
Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
4/20/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 23Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

OFK Vršac55%
×Draw22%
Tisa Adorjan23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Vršac
1.92
Tisa Adorjan
1.16

OFK Vršac creates 66% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 64 away

creates per match

OFK Vršac
2.19
Tisa Adorjan
1.58

allows per match

OFK Vršac
0.74
Tisa Adorjan
1.64

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par
Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

Tisa Adorjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw
77%
OFK Vršac or Tisa Adorjan
78%
Draw or Tisa Adorjan
45%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+
32%
Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals
85%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
57%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
30%
Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
69%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
32%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
71%
Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

Tisa Adorjan away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.64 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 2.19 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.92

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.58 + OFK Vršac defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

OFK Vršac scores more
55%
level
22%
Tisa Adorjan scores more
23%

OFK Vršac at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: OFK Vršac 4–3 Tisa Adorjan

OFK Vršac beat Tisa Adorjan 4-3 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Vršac.