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Tisa Adorjan vs Naftagas — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Naftagas
Naftagas
4/30/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 24Igralište Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Tisa Adorjan44%
×Draw24%
Naftagas32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tisa Adorjan
1.65
Naftagas
1.38

Tisa Adorjan creates 20% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 60 away

creates per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.90
Naftagas
1.33

allows per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.43
Naftagas
1.40

finishing

Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par
Naftagas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tisa Adorjan ↓

Naftagas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tisa Adorjan or draw
68%
Tisa Adorjan or Naftagas
76%
Draw or Naftagas
56%

Winning margin

Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
23%
Naftagas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
81%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
49%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
23%
Naftagas 1+ goals
75%
Naftagas 2+ goals
40%
Naftagas 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
58%
Naftagas (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tisa Adorjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.43 · 63 matches

Naftagas away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.90 + Naftagas defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.65

Naftagas attack 1.33 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tisa Adorjan scores more
44%
level
24%
Naftagas scores more
32%

Tisa Adorjan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tisa Adorjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Tisa Adorjan 1–2 Naftagas

Naftagas beat Tisa Adorjan 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Igralište Tise in Adorjan.