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Naftagas vs Tisa Adorjan — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Naftagas
Naftagas
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
4/20/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 24Stadion FK Naftagas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Naftagas51%
×Draw23%
Tisa Adorjan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naftagas
1.78
Tisa Adorjan
1.21

Naftagas creates 47% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 64 away

creates per match

Naftagas
1.92
Tisa Adorjan
1.58

allows per match

Naftagas
0.83
Tisa Adorjan
1.64

finishing

Naftagas+0.00on par
Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftagas ↓

Tisa Adorjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Naftagas or draw
74%
Naftagas or Tisa Adorjan
77%
Draw or Tisa Adorjan
49%

Winning margin

Naftagas wins by 2+
28%
Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Naftagas 1+ goals
83%
Naftagas 2+ goals
53%
Naftagas 3+ goals
26%
Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
70%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
34%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Naftagas (draw refunded)
66%
Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftagas at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.83 · 59 matches

Tisa Adorjan away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.64 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftagas attack 1.92 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.78

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.58 + Naftagas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Naftagas scores more
51%
level
23%
Tisa Adorjan scores more
26%

Naftagas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Naftagas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naftagas vs Tisa Adorjan

Tisa Adorjan beat Naftagas 4-3 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Naftagas in Elemir.