Tisa Adorjan 0–2 Mladost Novi Sad: Result & Stats

Tisa Adorjan

FT

0 – 2

Mladost Novi Sad

11/22/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 18Igralište Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tisa Adorjan33%

×Draw24%

Mladost Novi Sad43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tisa AdorjanExpected goals in this matchMladost Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.64

Tisa Adorjan

1.40

Mladost Novi Sad

1.64

Mladost Novi Sad creates 17% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 19 away

1.90

creates per match

1.84

1.43

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Tisa Adorjan

1.90

Mladost Novi Sad

1.84

allows per match

Tisa Adorjan

1.43

Mladost Novi Sad

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tisa Adorjan ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tisa Adorjan or draw

57%

Tisa Adorjan or Mladost Novi Sad

76%

Draw or Mladost Novi Sad

67%

Winning margin

Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+

15%

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals

75%

Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals

41%

Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals

17%

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

81%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

49%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)

43%

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tisa Adorjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.43 · 63 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 1.84, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.90 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.84 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tisa Adorjan scores more

33%

level

24%

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

43%

Mladost Novi Sad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff