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Mladost Novi Sad vs Tisa Adorjan — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
FT
2 – 1
Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
5/29/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 37Stadion FK Mladost Novi Sad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad67%
×Draw18%
Tisa Adorjan15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Novi Sad
2.45
Tisa Adorjan
1.08

Mladost Novi Sad creates 127% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 64 away

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad
3.26
Tisa Adorjan
1.58

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad
0.58
Tisa Adorjan
1.64

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par
Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

Tisa Adorjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw
85%
Mladost Novi Sad or Tisa Adorjan
82%
Draw or Tisa Adorjan
33%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
45%
Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
91%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
70%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
44%
Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
66%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
29%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
82%
Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 3.26, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Tisa Adorjan away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.64 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 3.26 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.45

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.58 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more
67%
level
18%
Tisa Adorjan scores more
15%

Mladost Novi Sad at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Novi Sad vs Tisa Adorjan

Mladost Novi Sad beat Tisa Adorjan 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mladost Novi Sad in Novi Sad.