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Tisa Adorjan vs Dunav Stari Banovci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
FT
2 – 0
Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
4/28/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 31Stadion u Narodnom parku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Tisa Adorjan67%
×Draw18%
Dunav Stari Banovci15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tisa Adorjan
2.33
Dunav Stari Banovci
1.00

Tisa Adorjan creates 133% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 28 away

creates per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.90
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.57

allows per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.43
Dunav Stari Banovci
2.75

finishing

Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par
Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tisa Adorjan ↓

Dunav Stari Banovci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Tisa Adorjan or draw
85%
Tisa Adorjan or Dunav Stari Banovci
82%
Draw or Dunav Stari Banovci
33%

Winning margin

Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
44%
Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
90%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
67%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
41%
Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
63%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
26%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
82%
Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tisa Adorjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.43 · 63 matches

Dunav Stari Banovci away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.90 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.33

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 0.57 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Tisa Adorjan scores more
67%
level
18%
Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
15%

Tisa Adorjan at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Tisa Adorjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Tisa Adorjan 2–0 Dunav Stari Banovci

Tisa Adorjan beat Dunav Stari Banovci 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion u Narodnom parku in Kanjiža.