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Dunav Stari Banovci vs Tisa Adorjan — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
FT
1 – 4
Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
10/11/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 12Stadion Pod Bairom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dunav Stari Banovci32%
×Draw23%
Tisa Adorjan45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.47
Tisa Adorjan
1.77

Tisa Adorjan creates 20% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 64 away

creates per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.30
Tisa Adorjan
1.58

allows per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.96
Tisa Adorjan
1.64

finishing

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par
Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Stari Banovci ↓

Tisa Adorjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dunav Stari Banovci or draw
55%
Dunav Stari Banovci or Tisa Adorjan
77%
Draw or Tisa Adorjan
68%

Winning margin

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
15%
Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
77%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
43%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
18%
Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
83%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
53%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
42%
Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Stari Banovci at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

Tisa Adorjan away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.64 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 1.30 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.47

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.58 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
32%
level
23%
Tisa Adorjan scores more
45%

Tisa Adorjan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tisa Adorjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunav Stari Banovci vs Tisa Adorjan

Tisa Adorjan beat Dunav Stari Banovci 4-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Bairom in Stari Banovci.