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Tisa Adorjan vs 1. Maj Ruma — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
8/27/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 3Igralište Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Tisa Adorjan50%
×Draw23%
1. Maj Ruma26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tisa Adorjan
1.81
1. Maj Ruma
1.25

Tisa Adorjan creates 45% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 72 away

creates per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.90
1. Maj Ruma
1.06

allows per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.43
1. Maj Ruma
1.72

finishing

Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par
1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tisa Adorjan ↓

1. Maj Ruma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tisa Adorjan or draw
74%
Tisa Adorjan or 1. Maj Ruma
77%
Draw or 1. Maj Ruma
50%

Winning margin

Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
28%
1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
84%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
54%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
27%
1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
71%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
36%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
66%
1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tisa Adorjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.43 · 63 matches

1. Maj Ruma away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.90 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.81

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.06 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tisa Adorjan scores more
50%
level
23%
1. Maj Ruma scores more
26%

Tisa Adorjan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tisa Adorjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Tisa Adorjan 5–0 1. Maj Ruma

Tisa Adorjan beat 1. Maj Ruma 5-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Igralište Tise in Adorjan.