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1. Maj Ruma vs Tisa Adorjan — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
5/20/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 27Stadion Maj Ruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

1. Maj Ruma42%
×Draw26%
Tisa Adorjan32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. Maj Ruma
1.44
Tisa Adorjan
1.24

1. Maj Ruma creates 16% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 64 away

creates per match

1. Maj Ruma
1.25
Tisa Adorjan
1.58

allows per match

1. Maj Ruma
0.90
Tisa Adorjan
1.64

finishing

1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par
Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. Maj Ruma ↓

Tisa Adorjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

1. Maj Ruma or draw
68%
1. Maj Ruma or Tisa Adorjan
74%
Draw or Tisa Adorjan
58%

Winning margin

1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
20%
Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
76%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
42%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
18%
Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
71%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
35%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
56%
Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. Maj Ruma at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Tisa Adorjan away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.64 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.25 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.58 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

1. Maj Ruma scores more
42%
level
26%
Tisa Adorjan scores more
32%

1. Maj Ruma at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "1. Maj Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: 1. Maj Ruma 0–1 Tisa Adorjan

Tisa Adorjan beat 1. Maj Ruma 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Maj Ruma in Ruma.