Tirol/CEFAT 1–0 Guarani De Juazeiro: Result & Stats

Tirol/CEFAT

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Guarani De Juazeiro

Domingos 42'

3/23/2024

Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tirol/CEFAT54%

×Draw24%

Guarani De Juazeiro22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tirol/CEFATExpected goals in this matchGuarani De Juazeiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.02

Tirol/CEFAT

1.75

Guarani De Juazeiro

1.02

Tirol/CEFAT creates 72% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

1.94

creates per match

1.04

1.00

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Tirol/CEFAT

1.94

Guarani De Juazeiro

1.04

allows per match

Tirol/CEFAT

1.00

Guarani De Juazeiro

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tirol/CEFAT+0.00on par

Guarani De Juazeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tirol/CEFAT ↓

Guarani De Juazeiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tirol/CEFAT or draw

78%

Tirol/CEFAT or Guarani De Juazeiro

76%

Draw or Guarani De Juazeiro

46%

Winning margin

Tirol/CEFAT wins by 2+

30%

Guarani De Juazeiro wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tirol/CEFAT 1+ goals

83%

Tirol/CEFAT 2+ goals

52%

Tirol/CEFAT 3+ goals

25%

Guarani De Juazeiro 1+ goals

64%

Guarani De Juazeiro 2+ goals

27%

Guarani De Juazeiro 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tirol/CEFAT (draw refunded)

71%

Guarani De Juazeiro (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tirol/CEFAT at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Guarani De Juazeiro away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tirol/CEFAT attack 1.94 + Guarani De Juazeiro defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.75

Guarani De Juazeiro attack 1.04 + Tirol/CEFAT defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tirol/CEFAT scores more

54%

level

24%

Guarani De Juazeiro scores more

22%

Tirol/CEFAT at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tirol/CEFAT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Domingos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff