Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guarani De Juazeiro vs Tirol/CEFAT — Cearense - 2 2019

Guarani De Juazeiro
Guarani De Juazeiro
FT
1 – 0
Tirol/CEFAT
Tirol/CEFAT
5/28/2022Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Governador Virgílio Távora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Guarani De Juazeiro41%
×Draw30%
Tirol/CEFAT29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani De Juazeiro
1.17
Tirol/CEFAT
0.93

Guarani De Juazeiro creates 26% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 17 away

creates per match

Guarani De Juazeiro
1.21
Tirol/CEFAT
0.94

allows per match

Guarani De Juazeiro
0.92
Tirol/CEFAT
1.12

finishing

Guarani De Juazeiro+0.00on par
Tirol/CEFAT+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani De Juazeiro ↓

Tirol/CEFAT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Guarani De Juazeiro or draw
71%
Guarani De Juazeiro or Tirol/CEFAT
70%
Draw or Tirol/CEFAT
59%

Winning margin

Guarani De Juazeiro wins by 2+
18%
Tirol/CEFAT wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Guarani De Juazeiro 1+ goals
69%
Guarani De Juazeiro 2+ goals
33%
Guarani De Juazeiro 3+ goals
11%
Tirol/CEFAT 1+ goals
61%
Tirol/CEFAT 2+ goals
24%
Tirol/CEFAT 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Guarani De Juazeiro (draw refunded)
59%
Tirol/CEFAT (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani De Juazeiro at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.92 · 24 matches

Tirol/CEFAT away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani De Juazeiro attack 1.21 + Tirol/CEFAT defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Tirol/CEFAT attack 0.94 + Guarani De Juazeiro defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guarani De Juazeiro scores more
41%
level
30%
Tirol/CEFAT scores more
29%

Guarani De Juazeiro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guarani De Juazeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guarani De Juazeiro vs Tirol/CEFAT

Guarani De Juazeiro beat Tirol/CEFAT 1-0 in Cearense - 2 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Governador Virgílio Távora in Crato, Ceará.