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Tirol/CEFAT vs Altos — Serie D 2018

Tirol/CEFAT
Tirol/CEFAT
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Altos
Altos
5/9/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tirol/CEFAT33%
×Draw31%
Altos35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tirol/CEFAT
0.95
Altos
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 43 away

creates per match

Tirol/CEFAT
0.60
Altos
1.37

allows per match

Tirol/CEFAT
0.60
Altos
1.30

finishing

Tirol/CEFAT+0.00on par
Altos+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tirol/CEFAT ↓

Altos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tirol/CEFAT or draw
65%
Tirol/CEFAT or Altos
69%
Draw or Altos
67%

Winning margin

Tirol/CEFAT wins by 2+
12%
Altos wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tirol/CEFAT 1+ goals
61%
Tirol/CEFAT 2+ goals
25%
Tirol/CEFAT 3+ goals
7%
Altos 1+ goals
63%
Altos 2+ goals
26%
Altos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tirol/CEFAT (draw refunded)
48%
Altos (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tirol/CEFAT at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Altos away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tirol/CEFAT attack 0.60 + Altos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.95

Altos attack 1.37 + Tirol/CEFAT defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Tirol/CEFAT scores more
33%
level
31%
Altos scores more
35%

Altos at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Altos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Tirol/CEFAT 1–0 Altos

Tirol/CEFAT beat Altos 1-0 in Serie D on May 9, 2026.