Altos 2–1 Tirol/CEFAT: Result & Stats | Serie D

Altos

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tirol/CEFAT

5/2/2026

Serie D · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Altos44%

×Draw25%

Tirol/CEFAT31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltosExpected goals in this matchTirol/CEFAT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.25

Altos

1.54

Tirol/CEFAT

1.25

Altos creates 23% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 5 away

1.68

creates per match

1.40

1.10

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Altos

1.68

Tirol/CEFAT

1.40

allows per match

Altos

1.10

Tirol/CEFAT

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altos+0.00on par

Tirol/CEFAT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altos ↓

Tirol/CEFAT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Altos or draw

69%

Altos or Tirol/CEFAT

75%

Draw or Tirol/CEFAT

56%

Winning margin

Altos wins by 2+

22%

Tirol/CEFAT wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Altos 1+ goals

79%

Altos 2+ goals

45%

Altos 3+ goals

20%

Tirol/CEFAT 1+ goals

71%

Tirol/CEFAT 2+ goals

36%

Tirol/CEFAT 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Altos (draw refunded)

59%

Tirol/CEFAT (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altos at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 41 matches

Tirol/CEFAT away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altos attack 1.68 + Tirol/CEFAT defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tirol/CEFAT attack 1.40 + Altos defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Altos scores more

44%

level

25%

Tirol/CEFAT scores more

31%

Altos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Altos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff