Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tiro Federal vs Talleres Cordoba — Torneo Federal A 2018

Tiro Federal
Tiro Federal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba
7/8/2015Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Round 13Estadio El Fortín de Ludueña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tiro Federal10%
×Draw36%
Talleres Cordoba54%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tiro Federal
0.27
Talleres Cordoba
1.00

Talleres Cordoba creates 270% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tiro Federal
0.20
Talleres Cordoba
1.00

allows per match

Tiro Federal
1.00
Talleres Cordoba
0.33

finishing

Tiro Federal+0.00on par
Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Under
  • Under86
  • Over14

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

85%No
  • No85
  • Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiro Federal ↓

Talleres Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–028%
0–128%
0–214%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (28%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
72%28%1.5
36%64%2.5
14%86%3.5
4%96%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Tiro Federal or draw
46%
Tiro Federal or Talleres Cordoba
64%
Draw or Talleres Cordoba
90%

Winning margin

Tiro Federal wins by 2+
1%
Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Tiro Federal 1+ goals
24%
Tiro Federal 2+ goals
3%
Tiro Federal 3+ goals
0%
Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals
63%
Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals
26%
Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tiro Federal (draw refunded)
15%
Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
7%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiro Federal at home — creates 0.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Talleres Cordoba away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiro Federal attack 0.20 + Talleres Cordoba defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.27

Talleres Cordoba attack 1.00 + Tiro Federal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tiro Federal scores more
10%
level
36%
Talleres Cordoba scores more
54%

Talleres Cordoba at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Talleres Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tiro Federal vs Talleres Cordoba

Talleres Cordoba beat Tiro Federal 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on July 8, 2015.

The match was played at Estadio El Fortín de Ludueña in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.