Talleres Cordoba 2–1 Tiro Federal: Result & Stats

Talleres Cordoba

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tiro Federal

4/12/2015

Torneo Federal A · Round 4Estadio Francisco Cabasés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Talleres Cordoba46%

×Draw29%

Tiro Federal25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Talleres CordobaExpected goals in this matchTiro Federal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.83

Talleres Cordoba

1.25

Tiro Federal

0.83

Talleres Cordoba creates 51% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.29

creates per match

0.80

0.86

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Talleres Cordoba

1.29

Tiro Federal

0.80

allows per match

Talleres Cordoba

0.86

Tiro Federal

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Tiro Federal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Cordoba ↓

Tiro Federal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Talleres Cordoba or draw

75%

Talleres Cordoba or Tiro Federal

71%

Draw or Tiro Federal

54%

Winning margin

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+

21%

Tiro Federal wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals

71%

Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals

36%

Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals

13%

Tiro Federal 1+ goals

56%

Tiro Federal 2+ goals

20%

Tiro Federal 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)

65%

Tiro Federal (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Cordoba at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Tiro Federal away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Cordoba attack 1.29 + Tiro Federal defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tiro Federal attack 0.80 + Talleres Cordoba defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Talleres Cordoba scores more

46%

level

29%

Tiro Federal scores more

25%

Talleres Cordoba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Talleres Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff