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Tiro Federal vs Talleres Cordoba — Torneo Federal A 2018

Tiro Federal
Tiro Federal
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba
J. Nievas Chavero 53'
M. Velasco 20'
2/20/2013Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Round 24Estadio El Fortín de Ludueña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tiro Federal14%
×Draw36%
Talleres Cordoba50%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tiro Federal
0.39
Talleres Cordoba
1.00

Talleres Cordoba creates 156% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tiro Federal
0.20
Talleres Cordoba
1.00

allows per match

Tiro Federal
1.00
Talleres Cordoba
0.57

finishing

Tiro Federal+0.00on par
Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Under
  • Under84
  • Over16

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

80%No
  • No80
  • Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiro Federal ↓

Talleres Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–025%
0–125%
0–212%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–12%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (25%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
75%25%1.5
40%60%2.5
16%84%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Tiro Federal or draw
50%
Tiro Federal or Talleres Cordoba
64%
Draw or Talleres Cordoba
86%

Winning margin

Tiro Federal wins by 2+
2%
Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Tiro Federal 1+ goals
32%
Tiro Federal 2+ goals
6%
Tiro Federal 3+ goals
1%
Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals
63%
Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals
26%
Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tiro Federal (draw refunded)
22%
Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
11%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiro Federal at home — creates 0.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Talleres Cordoba away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiro Federal attack 0.20 + Talleres Cordoba defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.39

Talleres Cordoba attack 1.00 + Tiro Federal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tiro Federal scores more
14%
level
36%
Talleres Cordoba scores more
50%

Talleres Cordoba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Talleres Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
M. Velasco
53'
J. Nievas Chavero

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Tiro Federal 0–2 Talleres Cordoba

Talleres Cordoba beat Tiro Federal 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on February 20, 2013.

Goals: M. Velasco (20'), J. Nievas Chavero (53').

The match was played at Estadio El Fortín de Ludueña.