Tirana 5–1 Luftetari Gjirokaster: Result & Stats

Tirana

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Luftetari Gjirokaster

1/26/2020

Superliga · Round 19Stadiumi Selman Stërmasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Tirana59%

×Draw23%

Luftetari Gjirokaster18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TiranaExpected goals in this matchLuftetari Gjirokaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.86

Tirana

1.77

Luftetari Gjirokaster

0.86

Tirana creates 106% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 36 away

1.49

creates per match

0.75

0.97

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Tirana

1.49

Luftetari Gjirokaster

0.75

allows per match

Tirana

0.97

Luftetari Gjirokaster

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tirana+0.00on par

Luftetari Gjirokaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tirana ↓

Luftetari Gjirokaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tirana or draw

82%

Tirana or Luftetari Gjirokaster

77%

Draw or Luftetari Gjirokaster

41%

Winning margin

Tirana wins by 2+

33%

Luftetari Gjirokaster wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tirana 1+ goals

83%

Tirana 2+ goals

53%

Tirana 3+ goals

26%

Luftetari Gjirokaster 1+ goals

58%

Luftetari Gjirokaster 2+ goals

21%

Luftetari Gjirokaster 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tirana (draw refunded)

77%

Luftetari Gjirokaster (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tirana at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.97 · 144 matches

Luftetari Gjirokaster away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tirana attack 1.49 + Luftetari Gjirokaster defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.77

Luftetari Gjirokaster attack 0.75 + Tirana defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tirana scores more

59%

level

23%

Luftetari Gjirokaster scores more

18%

Tirana at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff