Luftetari Gjirokaster 0–5 Tirana: Result & Stats

Luftetari Gjirokaster

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Tirana

6/7/2020

Superliga · Round 28Stadiumi Gjirokastra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Luftetari Gjirokaster26%

×Draw27%

Tirana47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luftetari GjirokasterExpected goals in this matchTirana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.38

Luftetari Gjirokaster

0.95

Tirana

1.38

Tirana creates 45% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 144 away

0.81

creates per match

1.34

1.42

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Luftetari Gjirokaster

0.81

Tirana

1.34

allows per match

Luftetari Gjirokaster

1.42

Tirana

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luftetari Gjirokaster+0.00on par

Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luftetari Gjirokaster ↓

Tirana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Luftetari Gjirokaster or draw

53%

Luftetari Gjirokaster or Tirana

73%

Draw or Tirana

74%

Winning margin

Luftetari Gjirokaster wins by 2+

9%

Tirana wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Luftetari Gjirokaster 1+ goals

61%

Luftetari Gjirokaster 2+ goals

25%

Luftetari Gjirokaster 3+ goals

7%

Tirana 1+ goals

75%

Tirana 2+ goals

40%

Tirana 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Luftetari Gjirokaster (draw refunded)

36%

Tirana (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luftetari Gjirokaster at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

Tirana away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.08 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luftetari Gjirokaster attack 0.81 + Tirana defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.95

Tirana attack 1.34 + Luftetari Gjirokaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luftetari Gjirokaster scores more

26%

level

27%

Tirana scores more

47%

Tirana at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff