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Tirana vs Kamza — Superliga 2018

Tirana
Tirana
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kamza
Kamza
1/27/2019SuperligaSuperliga · Round 19Stadiumi Selman Stërmasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tirana65%
×Draw23%
Kamza12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tirana
1.71
Kamza
0.59

Tirana creates 190% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 18 away

creates per match

Tirana
1.49
Kamza
0.22

allows per match

Tirana
0.97
Kamza
1.94

finishing

Tirana+0.00on par
Kamza+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tirana ↓

Kamza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tirana or draw
88%
Tirana or Kamza
77%
Draw or Kamza
35%

Winning margin

Tirana wins by 2+
37%
Kamza wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tirana 1+ goals
82%
Tirana 2+ goals
51%
Tirana 3+ goals
24%
Kamza 1+ goals
45%
Kamza 2+ goals
12%
Kamza 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Tirana (draw refunded)
84%
Kamza (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tirana at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.97 · 144 matches

Kamza away — creates 0.22, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tirana attack 1.49 + Kamza defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kamza attack 0.22 + Tirana defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tirana scores more
65%
level
23%
Kamza scores more
12%

Tirana at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tirana vs Kamza

Tirana beat Kamza 4-1 in Superliga on January 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Selman Stërmasi in Tirana.