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Kamza vs Tirana — Superliga 2018

Kamza
Kamza
FT
0 – 3
Tirana
Tirana
4/9/2019SuperligaSuperliga · Round 28Stadiumi Kamza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kamza19%
×Draw26%
Tirana55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamza
0.79
Tirana
1.53

Tirana creates 94% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 144 away

creates per match

Kamza
0.50
Tirana
1.34

allows per match

Kamza
1.72
Tirana
1.08

finishing

Kamza+0.00on par
Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamza ↓

Tirana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kamza or draw
45%
Kamza or Tirana
74%
Draw or Tirana
81%

Winning margin

Kamza wins by 2+
6%
Tirana wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Kamza 1+ goals
55%
Kamza 2+ goals
19%
Kamza 3+ goals
5%
Tirana 1+ goals
78%
Tirana 2+ goals
45%
Tirana 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kamza (draw refunded)
26%
Tirana (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamza at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Tirana away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.08 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamza attack 0.50 + Tirana defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.79

Tirana attack 1.34 + Kamza defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kamza scores more
19%
level
26%
Tirana scores more
55%

Tirana at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kamza vs Tirana

Tirana beat Kamza 3-0 in Superliga on April 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Kamza in Kamëz.