Tirana 1–1 Erzeni Shijak: Result & Stats

Tirana

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Erzeni Shijak

2/11/2024

Superliga · Round 23Air Albania Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Tirana50%

×Draw26%

Erzeni Shijak24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TiranaExpected goals in this matchErzeni Shijak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.98

Tirana

1.52

Erzeni Shijak

0.98

Tirana creates 55% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 36 away

1.49

creates per match

1.00

0.97

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Tirana

1.49

Erzeni Shijak

1.00

allows per match

Tirana

0.97

Erzeni Shijak

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tirana+0.00on par

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tirana ↓

Erzeni Shijak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tirana or draw

76%

Tirana or Erzeni Shijak

74%

Draw or Erzeni Shijak

50%

Winning margin

Tirana wins by 2+

25%

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tirana 1+ goals

78%

Tirana 2+ goals

45%

Tirana 3+ goals

20%

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals

62%

Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals

26%

Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tirana (draw refunded)

67%

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tirana at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.97 · 144 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tirana attack 1.49 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.00 + Tirana defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tirana scores more

50%

level

26%

Erzeni Shijak scores more

24%

Tirana at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff