Erzeni Shijak 1–0 Tirana: Result & Stats

Erzeni Shijak

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tirana

11/27/2023

Superliga · Round 14Arena Egnatia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Erzeni Shijak26%

×Draw28%

Tirana46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzeni ShijakExpected goals in this matchTirana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.35

Erzeni Shijak

0.95

Tirana

1.35

Tirana creates 42% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 144 away

0.81

creates per match

1.34

1.36

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Erzeni Shijak

0.81

Tirana

1.34

allows per match

Erzeni Shijak

1.36

Tirana

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzeni Shijak ↓

Tirana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Erzeni Shijak or draw

54%

Erzeni Shijak or Tirana

72%

Draw or Tirana

74%

Winning margin

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+

9%

Tirana wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals

61%

Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals

25%

Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals

7%

Tirana 1+ goals

74%

Tirana 2+ goals

39%

Tirana 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)

36%

Tirana (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzeni Shijak at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

Tirana away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.08 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzeni Shijak attack 0.81 + Tirana defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.95

Tirana attack 1.34 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Erzeni Shijak scores more

26%

level

28%

Tirana scores more

46%

Tirana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff