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Tinyosi vs Mbabane Swallows — Premier League 2020

Tinyosi
Tinyosi
FT
0 – 1
Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
8/4/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tinyosi21%
×Draw27%
Mbabane Swallows52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tinyosi
0.80
Mbabane Swallows
1.43

Mbabane Swallows creates 79% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 83 away

creates per match

Tinyosi
0.79
Mbabane Swallows
1.37

allows per match

Tinyosi
1.48
Mbabane Swallows
0.81

finishing

Tinyosi+0.00on par
Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tinyosi ↓

Mbabane Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tinyosi or draw
48%
Tinyosi or Mbabane Swallows
73%
Draw or Mbabane Swallows
79%

Winning margin

Tinyosi wins by 2+
6%
Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Tinyosi 1+ goals
55%
Tinyosi 2+ goals
19%
Tinyosi 3+ goals
5%
Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
76%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
42%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tinyosi (draw refunded)
29%
Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tinyosi at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Mbabane Swallows away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tinyosi attack 0.79 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.80

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.37 + Tinyosi defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tinyosi scores more
21%
level
27%
Mbabane Swallows scores more
52%

Mbabane Swallows at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tinyosi 0–1 Mbabane Swallows

Mbabane Swallows beat Tinyosi 1-0 in Premier League on August 4, 2021.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.