Mbabane Swallows 1–0 Tinyosi: Result & Stats

Mbabane Swallows

FT

1 – 0

Tinyosi

5/21/2021

Premier League · Round 12King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mbabane Swallows56%

×Draw25%

Tinyosi19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mbabane SwallowsExpected goals in this matchTinyosi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.80

Mbabane Swallows

1.57

Tinyosi

0.80

Mbabane Swallows creates 96% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 30 away

1.74

creates per match

0.90

0.71

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Mbabane Swallows

1.74

Tinyosi

0.90

allows per match

Mbabane Swallows

0.71

Tinyosi

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Tinyosi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbabane Swallows ↓

Tinyosi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mbabane Swallows or draw

81%

Mbabane Swallows or Tinyosi

75%

Draw or Tinyosi

44%

Winning margin

Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+

29%

Tinyosi wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals

79%

Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals

46%

Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals

21%

Tinyosi 1+ goals

55%

Tinyosi 2+ goals

19%

Tinyosi 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)

74%

Tinyosi (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbabane Swallows at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.71 · 85 matches

Tinyosi away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.74 + Tinyosi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.57

Tinyosi attack 0.90 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mbabane Swallows scores more

56%

level

25%

Tinyosi scores more

19%

Mbabane Swallows at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff