Tinyosi 1–0 Manzini Wanderers: Result & Stats

Tinyosi

FT

1 – 0

Manzini Wanderers

1/16/2022

Premier League · Round 9Kalanga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tinyosi34%

×Draw28%

Manzini Wanderers38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TinyosiExpected goals in this matchManzini Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.23

Tinyosi

1.16

Manzini Wanderers

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 69 away

0.79

creates per match

0.99

1.48

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Tinyosi

0.79

Manzini Wanderers

0.99

allows per match

Tinyosi

1.48

Manzini Wanderers

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tinyosi+0.00on par

Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tinyosi ↓

Manzini Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tinyosi or draw

62%

Tinyosi or Manzini Wanderers

72%

Draw or Manzini Wanderers

66%

Winning margin

Tinyosi wins by 2+

14%

Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tinyosi 1+ goals

69%

Tinyosi 2+ goals

32%

Tinyosi 3+ goals

11%

Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals

71%

Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals

35%

Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tinyosi (draw refunded)

48%

Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tinyosi at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Manzini Wanderers away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.52 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tinyosi attack 0.79 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.16

Manzini Wanderers attack 0.99 + Tinyosi defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tinyosi scores more

34%

level

28%

Manzini Wanderers scores more

38%

Manzini Wanderers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Manzini Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff